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Reports today (23 August 1998) indicate that Angola has definitely entered the war, and that Zimbabwe has 1400 to 1500 troops now in Zaire/Congo. Reports have been made of rebels shooting down Zimbabwean combat aircraft. How true this claim is, as it originated from rebel sources, is unknown. But witnesses have seen Angolan troops cross the border into Zaire/Congo. Witnesses have also reported a rebel column of T55 main battle tanks moving towards the "front". Senior diplomatic sources within the region have also reported that Angolan involvement will prove costly as the Angolans have only 15000 battle ready troops in all. Obviously the estimates sent to you in this regard in my last report will have to be revised. It has also been reported that a Kabila regime column of main battle tanks and trucks has been seen moving south towards rebel lines.

The split in the SADC is widening. It appears that Mugabe has close links to Kabila as their relatives have been trading with each other in diamonds and rations for Kabila's army. It appears as though the rivalry between Zimbabwe and South Africa as to who is the main player in the region is now in the open. Zimbabweans were resentful that although they made sacrifices to support the Mozambican government against Renamo terrorists in the 1980's, South Africa got the lion's share of the economic relations with Mozambique. In addition, during the struggle against the apartheid regime in the 1980's, Mugabe's Zimbabwe was the leader in the region of the frontline states. Zimbabwe has since been eclipsed by South Africa as the regional power under Mandela, and "comrade bob's" spiteful resentment of this is only too obvious.

I believe that the Zimbabwean view of the situation is incurably naive. As the regional superpower, South Africa could offer Mozambique economic benefits which Zimbabwe could not dream of doing. South Africa is the only African country developed enough on the entire continent to have a serious class system. It is the only country where class truly trumps tribalism as a source of identity. The high-tech first world component of the country may be small compared to the rest of the South African population and labour market, but it far outstrips anything in Africa. Once Mandela was voted into power and South Africa re-emerged as a full player in the global system, its enormous political, economic and military power vis a vis the rest of Africa, would grant it the mantle of regional and continental leadership. But "comrade bob" does seem to able to deal with this reality.

Zimbabwe is attempting to paint South Africa as a regional tool of America. This is also naive, although the Americans would love it if South Africa became that. South Africa has pursued a foreign policy line which places it in the middle of the first world and third world. It has strong ties to the USA (a bilateral treaty of engagement), but it also has strong ties to Libya and Cuba, who are hostile to the USA.

The war in Zaire/Congo and Mugabe's actions are moving to split the SADC. Mugabe is attempting to isolate South Africa diplomatically within the SADC. In this, he is being, for the moment, quite successful. At the moment Mandela's government's placatory efforts at playing the cheesy lentil-lefty social worker is allowing Mugabe to walk all over South Africa. If South Africa developed some cojones and a little common sense, especially in line with Mbeki's "African Renaissance" rhetoric, it would move swiftly, as one South African newspaper editorial has suggested, to threaten sanctions against countries which become involved in this lose-lose war. This would swiftly kick a dose of reality into the more warlike SADC countries, and stay their intervention. The countries of this region are heavily dependent on economic ties with South Africa.

At the moment it looks like, whatever happens, Zaire/Congo will split up as a "country" and that secession will follow from events there in the last two years. This would not necessarily be a bad outcome, as long as there is no perpetual warfare between these smaller states as in former-Yugoslavia. In my view, the following is likely: The eastern congo region would fall into the Rwandan-Ugandan sphere of influence. The southern region ("Katanga") could form a semi-viable state with its capital at Lubumbashi. It has considerable mineral resources. The western region of congo would be fought over between Angola's MPLA regime and Unita, to prevent same from being used by Unita as a rear staging area in the continuing Angolan civil war. The rest of the country's future is unknowable at this point.

Joel

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